The Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike may be postponed until December.
The timing of the Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike remains uncertain, with analysts divided on whether it will take place next month or be pushed back to December.
While some expected an immediate move after Governor Kazuo Ueda’s statement last month about the central bank’s focus on inflation and market conditions, no change is expected at this week’s meeting. Instead, economists and fund managers are focused on future meetings, with opinions diverging on the possible timing.
The BOJ raised rates in July, surprising many in the market. This triggered a rapid surge in the yen and a drawdown in global equities.
With inflation still a huge concern, the BOJ’s decisions on when to hike again will have huge consequences for Japan’s economy and the global markets.
According to a CNBC survey of 32 analysts, there’s no expectation for a rate change in September. The survey found 18.75% of analysts predicted an October hike, while 25% considered it possible.
Another 25% said a December hike is likely, and 31.25% called it a “live meeting,” meaning the BOJ will wait to see how the economic data plays out.
Jessica Hinds from Fitch Ratings mentioned that the BOJ is likely to proceed cautiously, allowing the effects of the July hike to fully materialize before making another decision.