In a recent interview with Jason Calacanis at the All-In Summit 2024 (held 8-10 September in Los Angeles), Peter Thiel discussed a wide range of topics, including the upcoming U.S. elections, the geopolitical tension between China and Taiwan, and the current state of artificial intelligence (AI). Thiel, known for his candid approach, shared why he has chosen not to participate financially in the 2024 election cycle despite his continued support for Donald Trump and J.D. Vance.

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Thiel mentioned that he is conflicted about the election, adding that although he supports Trump, he has decided not to donate any money this cycle. He explained that while he predicted Trump would win by a significant margin, there would likely be buyer remorse afterward. According to Thiel, most elections are not as close as the recent 2016 and 2020 elections, and he believes one side will collapse in the next two months. Thiel also expressed skepticism about the integrity of the election process, stating that if the race is close, Trump’s opponents will likely use tactics like ballot harvesting to “fortify” the results in their favor.

When Calacanis asked Thiel about potential changes to the election process, Thiel suggested adopting practices from other Western democracies. He advocated for one-day voting, minimal absentee ballots, stronger voter ID requirements, and making Election Day a national holiday. Thiel argued that U.S. election procedures have degraded over the last few decades and that restoring these practices could improve the process.

On the subject of a potential Trump presidency, Thiel voiced concerns about pressing issues like the U.S. deficit and global conflicts. He remarked that reducing the deficit without tax hikes or a shrinking economy would be an impressive achievement. Thiel also highlighted growing geopolitical risks, particularly around Ukraine and Taiwan, calling the former a precursor to the larger China-Taiwan conflict. He stated that avoiding a war over Taiwan during Trump’s presidency would be better than he expects, indicating that the stakes are high in the region.

When discussing Taiwan, Thiel said that U.S. policy toward the island is deliberately ambiguous, with officials signaling that they are unsure how they would react if China made a move. Thiel added that this uncertainty is likely a wise strategy, as it keeps China guessing. He suggested that the U.S. should not provide China with a clear red line, such as defending the smaller islands off the Chinese coast because doing so would limit flexibility in responding to future developments.

Thiel also touched on the state of AI, comparing it to the internet in 1999. He described the current moment as one of great potential, with significant advancements yet to be realized. However, he warned that the U.S. might be experiencing stagnation in innovation overall, especially in critical sectors like higher education and healthcare. Thiel expressed concern about the dominance of companies like Nvidia in the AI space and suggested that competition could be stifled in the future if their monopoly position grows stronger.